We Will Always and Forever Love Winners!

It’s very tempting to live with the notion that each and every person on this planet has a unique taste and would, as a result, rather consume a unique product. To the romantics adopting this theory, the digital age presented a golden chance: a limitless space with limitless offerings for anyone and everyone!

The digital age has inarguably transformed commerce in creative industries. Books, movies, music and other forms of creative media are digitized, have become less costly to replicate, and are usually available for free, or at a much lower price online (Elberse, 2011).

Did the digital age with all its offerings transform the business model of creative media from “blockbuster oriented” to a “long-tail” model; in which everyone — more or less — gets a piece of the big cake of profits?

To all of you “long tail” enthusiasts: You’re not entirely wrong, but you are quite delusional.

Allow me to brief you on both strategies and their proponents before I give my insights.

A blockbuster strategy usually entails producing a few expensive hit products and then betting on their blockbuster success.

In her book “Blockbusters”, Anita Elberse, a leading professor of Business Administration at Harvard Business School, delves deeply into the logic behind this theory and argues that, even in the digital age, “blockbusters will become more—not less—relevant to popular culture, and blockbuster strategies will thrive.” (P.11, Blockbusters, 2013)

On the other hand, Chris Anderson, British entrepreneur and former editor-in-chief of Wired Magazine, strongly believes the digital world is putting an end to the hit-oriented blockbuster strategies, by providing a democratized space for everyone to get small shares of a market that is both bigger and more varied. He so famously said on the term he coined himself; namely “the long-tail model”: “Combine enough nonhits on the Long Tail and you’ve got a market bigger than the hits”. (Anderson, 2004)

We are Social Beings:

Admit it, although you might be willing to watch an independent film produced by amateurs, you’re probably going to make time for the latest blockbuster film. A night out with a bunch of friends enjoying a hit movie together seems to be a likely scenario. Yes? I thought so too!

Well, it’s the same old you browsing the internet. Wouldn’t you rather be in on what is trending today? Aren’t we, in fact, more aware of the biggest hits and trends thanks to the technology which is supposedly democratizing the industry, and therefore, aren’t we, on the contrary, consuming more hits than ever?

“A handful of winning products account for a growing percentage of consumption over time — rather than a “fattening” of the tail of the distribution of demand across offerings.” (P.6, Elberse, 2011)

Big Risks, Bigger wins:

Any observer of the digital media landscape today will notice an apparent shift towards old-media models by the digital natives themselves. Netflix is embarking on high-budget original series (ex. House of Cards, Orange is the New Black), and Youtube is investing primarily in a few hit channels. Although they always pride themselves in catering to individual tastes and niche markets: look where their money is going and you will come to the conclusion that although they sell themselves as a home for everyone, they’re clearly making sure their money is always where YOUR money is!

“With advertisers showing particularly little appetite for space around the most niche user-generated content. Superstars do not lose their power in online channels either — if anything, evidence shows they tend to attract a disproportionate amount of attention in online channels, making them perhaps even safer bets for managers seeking solid product sales”. (P.7, Elberse, 2011)

Rise and Shine:

You could be on whichever end of the spectrum, Blockbuster or long-tail, however, ask yourself: Which theory makes more sense in the media business? Which is the more competitive, ambitious and promising one?Do you want to be just another face in the crowd? Or you want to make it big?

If you adopt the long tail theory and are happy with just a small piece of the cake, then try as you may I’m afraid, that’s probably all you’ll ever eat.

Aim high as you could be producing the blockbuster of tomorrow, and who knows, reading my post could be the trigger behind your first big hit!

References:

Elberse, A. (2011). The Creative Industries: The Promise of Digital Technology. Harvard Business School.

Elberse, A. (2013). Blockbusters: Hit-Making, Risk-Taking, and the Big Business of Entertainment. New York: Henry Holt and Company.

Anderson, C. (2004). The Long Tail. [online] WIRED. Available at: https://www.wired.com/2004/10/tail/ [Accessed 2 Feb. 2018].

Poole, S. (2013). Blockbusters by Anita Elberse — review. [online] the Guardian. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/books/2013/dec/24/blockbusters-big-anita-elberse-review [Accessed 2 Feb. 2018].

Marvin, G. (2013). “Blockbusters”: Why The Long Tail Is Dead And Go-Big Strategies Pay Off. [online] Marketing Land. Available at: https://marketingland.com/blockbusters-why-the-long-tail-is-dead-and-go-big-strategies-pay-off-62763 [Accessed 3 Feb. 2018].