Ukraine War, 6 December 2022

Hello everybody!

UPDATES

Two updates for the start: the VKS Su-34 claimed as shot down on 4 December, was a Su24M (RF-93798), and it was felled by a MANPAD team from the DPSU — the border-control service of the Ukrainian armed forces. The jet was one of several involved in blasting Ukrainian positions in the Spirne area with ODAB-500Ps (that video was taken in Syria, though) — and its crew was killed.

With hindsight, this is — probably — an ‘interesting development’. It might indicate that the VKS is not only flying its usual ‘spray and pray’ by Su-25s, but now regularly flying ‘direct attacks’ by its aged Su-24s. Whether to conserve its depleted Su-34-fleet, or to reinforce these….that’s not yet clear.

4 December 2022 was quite a good day for Ukrainian 138th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade, too: it deployed one of its Buks to blow up this Ka-52. The Russians confirmed the loss of the crew.

Many are wondering what kind of missile was deployed, and ‘how comes the missile approached from above’? This ‘attack from above’ is nothing new for some 40 years: in Soviet-made SAMs it became available already back in the 1970s, when late-model S-75s (known as ‘SA-2 Guideline’ in the West) were modified to target low-flying targets that way. That’s called the ‘top attack’ capability. With other words: for SAMs, this is ‘standard procedure’ for ages already.

AIR/MISSILE WARFARE

During the night from 4 to 5 December, several Ukrainian UAVs — probably refurbished and adapted Tupolev-designed Tu-141 and/or Tu-143 drones — have hit two (quote from the Russian social media) ‘defenceless and peaceful’ air bases of the Strategic Aviation VKS. See: Engels AB, outside Saratov (700km from the border to Ukraine), and Dygilevo (Ryazan region, 450km from Ukraine) — the places where units equipped with Tu-22M-3, Tu-95MS and Tu-160 bombers are home-based.

The strike — undertaken as the VKS was preparing its next missile onslaught on Ukraine (much expected since 28 November) — took the Russians by surprise, but was not as successful as it could have been: the Russian air defences — those ‘protecting defenceless and peaceful air bases in Russia’, and supposed to counter F-35s, Rafales, EF-2000s and cruise missiles — have shot down one of Ukrainian drones that malfunctioned (because the booster didn’t separate, in turn increasing its radar echo by quite some). That was in the Kursk area, where another drone went on to hit something and cause a fire.

Even so, the other few drones that did get through hit Engels and Dygilevo as the ground crews of the VKS were in the process of refueling and re-arming their bombers. The best, known, result was scored by a drone that hit the ground some 30m short of a Tu-22M-3 that was in the process of being refueled at Dygilevo AB. The detonation set afire a power-supply truck (such vehicles are used to provide power to aircraft on the ground) and badly damaged the wings and fin of the bomber — which, as can be seen from one of photos here — was loaded with at least one, probably two Kh-22 air-to-surface missiles. According to the Russians, three people were killed and five or six wounded. Apparently, the Kh-22s were not yet refueled, otherwise this one would go up in a significantly bigger conflagration…

Total result: at least one Tu-22M-3 was prevented from striking Ukraine and — under current circumstances — is probably out of action for the rest of this war.

Additionally, there were unconfirmed reports that two Tu-95s have been damaged at Engels. By now, a photo surfaced shown one example damaged and surrounded by fire-fighting foam:

Not perfect, but not bad either.

Of course, the Keystone Cops declared this for a ‘provocation’ and then ‘retaliated’ by flying their next mass-strike on the Ukrainian power grid. According to official Kyiv, between 14.30 and 15.30hrs local time, the VKS released:

- 38 Kh-101 and Kh-555 missiles from 8 Tu-95s,

- 22 3M54 Kalibrs from ships and subs in the Black Sea,

- 3 Kh-22s from Tu-22M-3s,

- 6 Kh-59s and one Kh-31P from Su-34s and Su-35s, and

- at least four S-300s (in ‘ballistic mode’).

The first wave approached Ukraine around 15.00hrs from the east. Four S-300s fired from the Belgorod area in direction of Kharkiv (targets in Lozovsky and Volchansky districts) were all claimed as shot down by Ukrainian air defences. Ukrainian SAMs in the Zaporizhzhya seem to have been activated as next, in reaction to multiple missiles approaching from south-east. Results unknown. One missile was then shot down in the Dnipropetrovsk area, and more were detected while approaching Kremenchuk, Vinnytsia, and Kirovgrad (overall, the OK East claimed 15 missiles as shot down).

In the north, nine out of ten missiles that approached the Kyiv area were shot down similarly, while in the north-east, up to 10 were shot down in the Poltava area (apparently including this one felled by a Flakpanzer Gepard).

Meanwhile, three missiles were detected approaching Mykolaiv: air defences opened fire and one explosion was heard over the city. ‘Several’ missiles then approached Odesa: one was claimed as shot down.

Overall, out of around 70 Russian missiles released, Ukrainians claimed over 60 as shot down. As usual, several Kalibrs were routed via Moldova, and one of Ukrainian V5V55 missiles (S-300 system) fired in return hit the ground in the Briceni area (strangely enough, Trump is not complaining about Ukraine shooting ‘at an ally’ this time…?). Those that came through have hit infrastructure facilities in Vinnytsia, Kyiv, Kirovgrad, Zaporizhzhya, Dnipropetrovsk, and Odesa (sub-station CHPP-2), causing black-outs in the Sumy, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv (partial black-out), Zhytomyr (partial black-out), and Odesa (partial black out), and water supply issues in Sumy, Zhytomyr, Zaporizhzhya, and Odesa. Of course, railway traffic was severely disrupted, too (the Keystone Cops in Moscow claimed a total of 17 hits).

Moreover, escorting Russian interceptors claimed an Ukrainian Su-25 as shot down in the Yuryevka area, a MiG-29 in the Zverevo area, plus two Mi-8s in the Maryinka area. Once again, no evidence for any of these claims was released (at most, some claimed this Wagner-operated Mi-8, shot down by Ukrainians on 31 October, as ‘Ukrainian’….).

BATTLE OF DONBASS

The situation in south-eastern Ukraine is ‘standard’, so to say — which means that the Russians are attacking, relentlessly, though without much success, all the way from Dvorichna, north of Kupyansk, in the north-east, to Avdiivka in the south.

Kupyansk… as expected, the troops of the 423rd Motor Regiment (1st GTA), the 9th and 18th Motor Divisions (XI AC) have launched several counter-attacks on the ZSU positions along the R07 highway, back on 3 and 4 December. This punch did have some success in terms of reaching Novoselivske, on 4 December: ever since, the two parties are fighting inside this village. However, in turn, Ukrainians attacked from Kyslivka towards north, and seem to have secured 4–5 villages in the Ivanivka area.

Svatove….apparently, the Russians grouped something like

- 2 BTGs made up of troops from the 59th Tank Regiment, and 254th and 488th Motor Rifle Regiments,

- 1 BTG made up of troops of the 33rd and 55th Motor Rifle Brigades,

- 1,5 BTGs made up of troops from the 3rd and 24th Divisions, and

- 1 BTG from the 76th VDV Division

….to counterattack in direction of Neveskoye and Makiivka — with the result of the VSRF continuing its practice of re-supplying the ZSU with additional MBTs (including this intact T-90), and IFVs…

In that sense: those expecting ‘neutral reporting’ are free to show me similar videos of Ukrainian AFVs captured during the same clashes, of course.

Kremina…Ukrainians have meanwhile tracked a re-deployment of a BTG from the 106th VDV Division from Luhansk towards north, and were thus expecting the Russians to reinforce their efforts in the area north of Kremina. Thus, the Russian counterattack on Chernopopivka came as no surprise, even if its outcome is unclear as of yet (at least not to me). Inside Kremina: the 144th Division was, reportedly, reinforced by two weak, but ‘fresh’ tank companies (total of 19 MBTs).

Bakhmut…. This is what most of the town is looking like, nowadays. Mind: over 2,000 civilians — including some 300 children — are still living there (or trying to survive).

The situation remains critical for the ZSU, as all the possible reinforcements rushed there are still not in the line. The Russians continued pushing on Bilohorivka (where they seem to have lost some ground, the last two days: the ZSU is regularly running local counterattacks), on Berestove, Yakovlivka, Soledar, and Bakhmutske. On the eastern side of Bakhmut, Wagner has reached the Patrice Lumumba Street, which is no good news — alone because it means not only the Russians, but the ZSU has suffered casualties, too.

South of Bakhmut, Wagner claimed the village of Opytne as captured — for the third time by now. Must be the reason why Ukrainian troops are patrolling the place… Seems, Surovikin is not checking maps, just rushing ever additional troops downhill, so the enemy can shoot at them, freely, from the hill on the opposite side….

….which reminds me that back in the 1980s, during the Iran-Iraq War, everybody was belittling the IRGC and what the Iraqis and then the West described as ‘human wave tactics’: the myth was that the Iranian commanders were pushing dozens of thousands of combatants ‘en masse’ into Iraqi minefields, and then kept on ‘pumping’ more men into the ‘battle’ until the Iraqis run out of ammunition…. Unsurprisingly, this led to the myth along which Iran alone suffered over 1 million killed I that war. Actually, the IRGC learned to infiltrate and then swarm Iraqi positions by night, overrunning even the best-protected positions in the open and flat semi-desert of western Khuzestan and south-east Iraq. The IRGC learned that: the Russians seem unable to learn any lessons at all. Well, except for Wagner, which is still much too small, and always quickly running out of steam, and thus can’t make that much difference….

Nowadays they have an additional problem: as announced already back in July-August, their UAVs are useless in the winter weather (plus, RUMINT has it that they have lost nearly all of their Orlan-10s). This means: the Russian commanders are ‘blind’, most of the time. They do not know where are Ukrainian positions, while — thanks to their UAVs — Ukrainians are tracking every of their moves. Unsurprising result is (nearly) always the same, no matter how many dozens of assaults is Surovikin ordering: like already during the high point of the Battle for Rubizhne, back in April-May, and then the Battle of Severodonetsk, back in June-July, they first send a ‘company’ of ‘useless cannon fodder’ forward (in Rubizhne and Severodonetsk, this was Separatist infantry): Ukrainians can’t ignore these approaching them, so they open fire. While the Russians thus suffer heavy losses, Ukrainians are exposing their positions. This is what is then exploited by Wagner to assault in a ‘more sophisticated’ fashion — and that at the time forward Ukrainian positions are getting short on ammunition because of engaging the reservists…

That’s what’s happening on the frontlines ‘around’ Bakhmut the entire day, hour after hour. Something like an ‘indirect’ confirmation not only for this tactics, but its murderous results is a video I’ve linked few days ago: a video shown a captured convict that served with Wagner. His story is simple: he was mobilised about 6 weeks ago. Five days before being captured, his BTG counted 500 troops. By the time he was captured, only two of them were still alive.

Elsewhere in that area: by now it’s clear that Wagner assaulted Kurdyumivka and Andriivka with the aim of punching further west and cutting the road T0504. Ukrainians claim Kurdyumivka as ‘contested’, but gauging by latest reports, according to which they are ‘counterattacking’ the place, I would consider it as ‘lost’, meanwhile.

Avdiivka….typical Russian ‘break-through’…. This time north of Avdiivka, in the area of Krasnohorivka and Vesele: they drive up the line of fire-contact, hit a mine (whether one planted by Ukrainians or by the Russians), people, body parts and wreckage are flying high, and whoever still can is running away… and when that is over, then the surviving Russians get hit by HIMARS, too. Similar can be said about Russian assaults on Vodyane, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske. That said, an Ukrainian counterattack on Pervomaiske was not particularly successful, either….

Further south… The Russians are in control over half of Marinka (at least), but the frontline stabilised as both sides are exhausted. Ukrainians have counterattacked Novomykhailivka, but that attack was stopped by the firepower of the Russian attack helicopters and artillery.

Zaporizhzhya…. Well, the way things are by now, it seems that the Russians actually ‘just withdrew’ some of units they need further east, but there was no ‘major Ukrainian offensive’, nor even any kind of a serious advance.

….think, that’s about that for today, folks.