Dec 5

9 min read

Dec 4 — Day 284 — Light images, Foreigners, Siemens like a good idea to me!

Hi FB!

The intro images are first a Humvee done up by some Ukrainian territorial defense as a launch system carrying BM-8 helicopter rockets. The point to draw here is that this is another indicator that the Ukrainian ground troops still see a need for more close-in fire support. (Of course, this could also be a case of “you never have enough”.) But in any case this was the first time I saw a Humvee done up as a rocket artillery technical.

First time I ever saw a Humvee used as a rocket artillery technical

The other two images are from Ukraine’s Presidential Administration. They illustrate well, I think, pieces of civilian life in Ukraine after the Russians have blown up part of the power grid.

Pretty much all Ukrainian kids and grownups are in this situation at some point every day, and if not that, then for sure several times in a week.

One of the bigger things that suck about power cut offs is that the medical stuff needs to continue even when the lights quit, and usually you can’t predict when that will be.

I didn’t see any major news developments in the last 48 hours. There was more discussion about how the fighting is moving into a slow phase. A guy named Oleksandr Musenko, of the Center of Military-Legal Research, said that among other things the Russians are regrouping, probably to feed (even) more troops into the Bakhmut fight.

A possible additional indicator of a slow-down, or more exactly some time before the next Ukrainian offensive, might be found in the minutes of Ukraine’s National Security Council, which met on Friday to discuss “the pace of restoration of damaged military equipment and provision of the defense forces with weapons and ammunition”. This could be a fake-out, but it also could be the Ukrainian government going about preparations for the next offensive relatively deliberately.

The fighting

Svatove-Kreminne — Both sides are reporting a relatively static situation here. Whatever pressure the UAF was bringing on Kreminne in the last few days, according to the Russians, has now stopped. In general, from the RF point of view, this sector is now set in a solid defense headed up by 20th Combined Arms Army, and consisting of four brigades equivalents (3rd, 24th, 55th and 77th) .

Donbass — More and more I am coming to conclusion that the main point to this fight is to give the Russian public the impression that the Kremlin’s forces are advancing somewhere.

The Ukraine Presidential Office issued this statement on Saturday: “Bakhmut. At a city, which has no strategic meaning to the war, the Kremlin is piling up thousands of mobilized reserves, felons, mercenaries and soldiers. All of that to prove to itself: We still can do something! No, you can’t. Forget about Bakhmut. Start getting ready for Yalta — the Yalta Tribunal”

Under normal circumstances, I would call this generic hybrid war rhetoric and the Zelensky administration trolling the Russians. But this is also a pretty strong and very public expression of confidence from the Ukrainian leadership. Either they are really sure Bakhmut will hold, or, they are so out of options at Bakhmut, that the Ukainian leadership has nothing else but empty words.

The British Ministry of Defense on Saturday put out an estimate basically agreeing with that operational view in more polite terms. They said the Russian intent is to try and capture the town by outflanking it and that they are wasting prodigious amounts of people and equipment on fairly unimportant objective.

I’m seeing reports that the UAF has shifted multiple international units to the Bakhmut fight, including Russians and Belarusians fighting on the Ukrainian side. According to the Russians, the mostly-American Mozart Group is present here as well. Some may recall that in the latter stages of the Severodonetsk fight, in June, when the fighting became severe the UAF threw several foreign units into that battle. I assume the UAF thinking is the foreign units will fight harder in urban combat and that urban combat is small unit, infantry-intensive and doesn’t require a lot of coordination with other parts of the UAF. RF-produced map of going on around Bakhmut, attached.

RF-manufactured map of what’s doing around Bakhmut

In this attached video of a Belarusian volunteer, the current Russian tactic is described: first the reserves or felons get sent, they get shot up by the Ukrainians, and the Wagner troops follow up with a combined arms attack against the Ukrainian positions, that now aren’t hidden any more.

According to RF sources, the regular UAF units fighting here reportedly are 58th Motorized Bde, 54th Mechanized Brigade, 71st Jaeger Bde. 44th Artillery Brigade, a powerful unit I believe to be at least partially equipped with Western howitzers, is backing up the line. Also present is the volunteer regiment Donbass, and the 241st Territorial Defense Brigade. In other words, a mish-mash of formations with the simple goal of making the Russians pay dearly to gain ground.

Kherson — There is a recon group called Karslon and they are operating on the left bank of the Dnipro. To prove it, they climbed way up a shoreside crane and hung a Ukrainian flag there. This is most likely Ukrainian propaganda intending to demonstate UAF ground presence where it proabably isn’t there in any strength. Not saying the Karlson boys put up the flag, just observing it’s very, very unlikely they’re still there. Video attached.

Strike Zone

As of Saturday the Russians reportedly doubled the number of warships at sea and carrying missiles from 12 missiles total to 24. There are 18 vessels at sea. Also on Saturday, three Tu-95s took off at Engels-2 airfield, flew around, and then landed. Since the beginning of the week before last, no more strikes.

According to Ukraine’s Presidential Administration Myhailo Podolyak, it’s possible the next round of Russian strikes will come once the weather gets a good deal colder, down to minus eight or ten below freezing, and it’s possible the Kremlin target won’t be power grid as much as heating plants. The better to freeze the Ukrainians and force them to surrender, is supposedly Putin’s thinking.

Also, not sure this is connected, on Saturday a Tu-204 normally carrying very senior members of the Kremlin flew from Moscow to Minsk. News reports said it was the Russian Defense Minister flying to talk to his Belarusian counterparts. Over the months we have seen increases in Russian bigshot presence in Belarus precede significant Russian moves in the north like invasion, retreat from Kyiv and Chernihiv, shift of forces to Donbass, and shift of troops from Kherson to Belarus.

Possibly, this was coordination on air space or even possibly launches for the next round of strikes. However, Russian and Belarusian state TV made it look like just a big photo op.(Image)

Belarus and Russia sign an agreement to, well, cooperate militarily.

Nukes and energy

The Italian La Repubblica via the author Rafael Grossi reported on Saturday that a deal is in the works under which a ceasefire/safe zone would be set up around the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant and the Russian troops would leave, in exchange for which the Ukrainians would guarantee not to attack the plant and safe transit for Russian oil and gas to Europe. I don’t know Grossi or La Repubblica at all, and if this report was properly sourced I absolutely want to be corrected, and I hesitate to cast stones, but, if the FSB wanted a story planted in western media this one of the ones they would like to plant.

I doubt very much the Ukrainians will agree to a concession that, at bottom, rewards the Kremlin for using military force to take a Ukrainian nuclear station hostage. Image of station attached.

Zaporizhia nuclear power plant. According to a big Italian newspaper the Russians have offered to tell their soldiers to stop holding the station hostage, if Ukraine will promise to let Russian oil and gas cross Ukrainian territory to be sold in Europe for hard currency.

In a parallel but probably unrelated development, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said Washington doesn’t think Putin intends to negotiate in good faith, and that as long as he is attacking Ukrainian civilians and civilian infrastructure, that will remain the US position.

Also on the energy theme, some images cropped up claiming there is a plan to send ship-mounted giant generators to Ukrainian ports to help solve the national electricity problem. I’m not saying it’s going to happen, but I am saying, according to the report, that Siemens would make a good deal of money, I bet. Image attached.

Not sure if this is a real plan, but the idea is Siemens will help fix Ukraine’s energy issues by sailing up these big generator ships to Ukrainian ports like Odessa and Kherson and delivering electricity that way.

Mobilization

In the later afternoon on Friday a video surfaced (attached) showing a mob of recently-mobilized reservists defying gate guards and walking off base in Kazan Oblast’. The word is chain of command told them they couldn’t meet with family members outside the base and the reservists defied the chain of command.

Day 284 - Mobilized Russian soldiers in Kazan are ordered to stay on base and ignore the order.

from: https://medium.com/@Stefan.Korshak

youtube.com

In an ironic but definitely coincidental development, on Saturday the Iranian government asked the Russian Federation for assistance putting down public unrest in Iran, according, purportedly, to report from Iran International.

Stuff for Ukraine

Lithuania and Germany and Poland — Let the record reflect, two PzH2000 got fixed in Lithuania and came back. Image attached. According to news reports, this is the start of a regular repair and maintenance setup for the weapons. This is useful indicator of NATO nations’ ability/willingness to support Ukaine. These howitzers — technically the most advanced cannon in theater, 18 of them, from Holland and Germany — were first talked about in June, training took place over the summer, they got shipped (I think) in late September and by mid-November the word was out that they were all broken because they had been designed to fire maybe 10–30 shells a day and the Ukrainians were sometimes firing ten times that.

Lithuanian official reports his country has fixed a couple of German howitzers that there was a big intra-NATO fight about where the weapons would be fixed and how much technical information the German manufacturer was going to release to a third party. There are 18 of these howitzers, mostly broken, according to news reports, because they weren’t built for the kind of intense firing the Ukrainians used them for.

There was a big kerfuffle between Poland, Germany and Lithuania about who and where the guns would be fixed, and if all of that is sorted out basically six months since the start gun for shipping these weapons to Ukraine was fired, OK it could have been a lot more efficient, but honestly we’ve seen NATO do worse. However, if in 30–45 days these guns are sent back AGAIN to Lithuania for barrel replacement etc., then that also would be par for NATO.

Czech Republic — Czech media offered up details of the 90 T-72 tanks Prague just promised the Ukrainians. They will be overhauled by a company called Excalibur Army and once completed they will be faux fourth generation vehicles with thermal imaging, secure communications, automated systems management, and all manner of modern bells and whistles. The Czechs will supposedly deliver “one part” of the package before end of 2022, and “the rest” in 2023. Upgrades will be from existing parts stocks and “supplies from partners of Ukraine”, which I think we can take to mean the Americans or French, who manufacture them, will ship the Czech the thermal sights.

You can see how a lot of arms companies stand to make a good deal of money on the project. An interesting sidebar is, Excalibur Army has hired about 150 Ukrainians to help do the work. Image attached.

Example of a spiffy T-72 modernized by Czech industry to fourth generation capacity and supposedly en route to Ukraine. 90 total are supposed to be delivered but the timeline for entire delivery is murky.

Slovakia -Prime Minister Eduard Heger said Bratislava is coordinating with the Ukrainians to deliver, possibly, MiG-29 fighters and/or tanks. He said he wouldn’t give details because the Ukrainians want to keep that sort of thing a secret, but I think we can take that to mean no deal is done, not least because most of the time when a European state does manage to make a hard decision to send Ukraine arms, the government media people push out the news to all and sundry. Routine pic of a Slovakian Mig-29 attached, but I don’t read too much into it.

Stock image of Slovakian MiG-29s, the internet is talking about how they might go to Ukraine, again.

Finland — Sisu-XA-180s armored personnel carriers were spotted and photographed in the hands of 1st Battalion 36th Marine Infantry, Kherson sector. This follows on with the general UAF pattern to send the lighter battle taxis to the Marines and the Assault Infantry, while the proper infantry battle vehicles are sent to the Mechanized and Tank Brigades. Image attached.